If the last two years in commercial real estate felt like extra innings with no scoreboard, you weren’t imagining it. Higher interest rates, tighter lending, and a cautious capital market put a lot of deals on ice. But here’s the key point many headlines missed:
The smart money never actually left the field. It just changed positions.
According to a recent GlobeSt. analysis, private buyers—high-net-worth individuals, family offices, and syndicators—have quietly been carrying the market, even as large institutions hit pause and waited for better visibility on rates and pricing. And now, as borrowing costs stabilize and transaction velocity starts to pick back up, institutional capital appears to be stretching in the on-deck circle.
Private Capital Has Been Doing the Heavy Lifting
Since 2010, private investors have accounted for roughly 47% of all U.S. commercial real estate acquisitions. That share jumped above 55% of deployed capital in 2025, even while institutional players pulled back, representing only about 21% of acquisitions in the first three quarters of the year.
In plain English:
While pensions, REITs, and large funds waited for interest rates and valuations to settle into a new normal, private buyers kept writing checks.
Why?
Because private capital is typically:
That’s exactly what we saw in 2023–2025. Fundraising slowed, deal flow dipped, but well-capitalized private groups continued buying—especially in sectors and markets where they could underwrite durable cash flow and long-term upside.
The Capital Markets Backdrop Is Improving
The GlobeSt. piece also points out something critical:
Equity availability and deployment are improving as interest rates stabilize and leverage becomes more accretive again.
After peaking in 2022, fundraising volumes fell sharply in 2023 and early 2024. But by late 2025, capital flows and transaction activity began to recover, with deal velocity up more than 17% year-over-year in the first three quarters.
This is the classic early-cycle signal:
Institutions, in particular, raised over $120 billion in fresh capital in 2025, and with returns turning positive again, many are preparing to re-enter acquisition mode in 2026.
What the Property Sectors Are Telling Us
The fundamentals are also quietly improving across several major sectors:
This isn’t a “back to 2021” story. It’s a “back to rational, income-driven investing” story.
What This Means for Investors and Owners
From an advisory and GP/LP perspective, this setup is important:
The Bottom Line
The last cycle wasn’t a collapse—it was a reset.
Private capital stepped in first, proving that conviction never disappeared. Institutions are now lining up to follow.
Smart money doesn’t wait for headlines to turn bullish.
It positions itself early, when fundamentals are stabilizing, and sentiment is still cautious.
And that’s exactly what 2026 is shaping up to be:
Not a hype-driven rebound—but a disciplined, capital-led one.
Justin Langlois, CCIM is a Commercial Real Estate Advisor with Stirling Investment Properties servicing Baton Rouge, Louisiana and surrounding markets. Please reach out to Justin to discuss your real estate investment strategies.
Source: “CRE Investment Fueled by Private Buyers, Institutions Poised to Return,” GlobeSt., Jan. 20, 2026, by Kristen Smithberg.