There is plenty of noise in the market right now, but if you are following healthcare real estate, you already know the signal cuts through most of it. Capital is moving, fundamentals are holding, and the data heading into mid-2026 does not look like a sector that is waiting around.
Here is what the market is actually telling us.
The Outpatient Migration Is Reshaping Where the Money Goes
Outpatient revenue has surged 45% since 2020, nearly triple the 16% growth in inpatient services over the same period, and projections from Colliers point to another 10.6% growth over the next five years. That is not a trend, that is a structural shift, and investors are pricing it that way.
Average MOB occupancy reached 92.5% in 2025, with many markets exceeding 95%, and the average triple-net rent for medical office buildings has climbed 8.8% compared to three years ago. Meanwhile, CBRE projects MOB construction completions will drop another 26% in 2026, reaching the lowest level in over a decade. Less supply, stronger demand, and rents moving higher. That is a straightforward underwriting story.
Vacancy in quality MOBs across the top 100 markets sat at just 7.5% at year-end 2025, and since 2021, net absorption has exceeded new deliveries in four of the past five years. In the top 50 markets, demand has outpaced supply by more than 3 million square feet on a cumulative basis.
The decentralization of care is accelerating all of this. Hospital systems are building closer to where patients live, expanding MOBs, urgent care centers, standalone emergency departments, and ambulatory surgery centers across suburban and community markets. That is good news for outpatient demand, and it is creating real opportunities in markets that institutional buyers were slower to target.
Senior Housing Is the Standout Story of the Cycle
If you are not paying attention to senior housing right now, you should be. Rolling four-quarter transaction volume reached $24 billion by year-end 2025, the highest level since the second quarter of 2015, according to JLL's 2026 Seniors Housing and Care Investor Survey.
The occupancy picture is equally compelling. Senior housing occupancy grew 2.2 percentage points over the course of 2025, ending the year at 89.1%, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of occupancy rate increases. NIC expects that occupancy will push above 90% in 2026, potentially reaching the highest level reported in the 20 years that NIC MAP has tracked this data.
The supply side is what makes this especially interesting for investors. The number of senior housing units under construction has declined for 16 consecutive quarters, with construction activity in the fourth quarter of 2025 down 20% compared to the same period the prior year. Just over 16,000 units were under construction in primary markets, the lowest level since 2012.
And the demand wave has barely started. The oldest Baby Boomers are turning 80 in 2026, and NIC projects that if constrained supply conditions persist, demand will continue outpacing inventory for years to come. JLL's survey found that 86% of respondents are seeking to increase their seniors housing exposure in 2026. That is about as clear a signal as you are going to get from institutional capital.
Behavioral Health Is No Longer Peripheral
Behavioral health has moved from niche to core in healthcare real estate conversations, and the transaction activity reflects it. Sector dealmaking in behavioral health services rose 47% year-over-year through the third quarter of 2025, with strategic acquirers posting a 105% increase in deal activity compared to the prior period.
The physical footprint is expanding alongside the operator growth. Behavioral health and inpatient rehab are cited as a growing sector by Colliers, driven by demographic demand and improved reimbursement dynamics, with nearly 100 new buyers entering the medical office market in 2025. The way care is delivered is evolving, with outpatient growth outpacing inpatient care and health systems moving beyond the traditional hospital footprint into medical outpatient buildings, ambulatory centers, and even retail spaces.
Bradford Health Services is planning to add eight to 10 new outpatient centers and sober living facilities in 2026 while pursuing additional acquisitions, with its pipeline of acquisition opportunities growing substantially in 2025. That is one example of a much broader trend. Operators are scaling, and the real estate to support that expansion has to come from somewhere.
What This Means for Deals on the Ground
In times of market uncertainty, investor focus tends to shift to sectors that are anti-cyclical and can weather a storm. The inelastic demand for healthcare services and the real estate that supports it becomes even more attractive in that environment.
The cleanest, best-located, system-anchored assets are clearing first. Price discovery is narrowing, and as rate visibility improves, gradual transaction volume growth is expected through 2026.
That is exactly the environment where speed and clarity on the ground matter most. Brokers and investors who can underwrite quickly, move confidently, and close without delays are the ones capturing the deals that are actually trading.
Healthcare real estate is not immune to macro headwinds, and anyone telling you otherwise is not paying attention. But the fundamentals across MOBs, senior housing, and behavioral health are as well-supported as any property type in the market right now. The capital knows it, the data confirms it, and the deals are getting done.
The market is moving. The question is whether you are positioned to move with it.
Justin Langlois, CCIM, SIOR is a Commercial Real Estate Advisor with Stirling Investment Advisors servicing Baton Rouge, Louisiana and surrounding markets. Please reach out to Justin to discuss your real estate investment strategies.